Early Warnings for Ecological Tipping Points

A new paper co-authored by HF senior ecologist Aaron Ellison explores early-warning detection signaling in systems undergoing rapid change. As ecosystems approach critical thresholds, scientists can choose a number of different methods to detect early warning signs. The authors recommend combining these methods to avoid false alarms or missed signals. Their results can be applied in a variety of analysis types: biological (e.g. gene expression), climatic (e.g. daily temperature), physiological (e.g. respiratory rhythm), social (e.g. numbers of tweets), or financial (i.e. stock prices).

• Read the paper.
• Learn more about the statistical code and methods for the project.